[Prognostic Factors of Pneumocystis Carinii Pneumonia in AIDS]

Objectives: Identify prognosis factors in Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia at diagnosis and construct a model to predict mortality according to these prognosis factors.

Methods: Seventy-seven consecutive cases of proven AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (67 men, 10 women, mean age 37.2 years) were reviewed to determine the most accurate initial prognostic factors and estimate an individual prediction of death. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed. Three kinds of data were entered into the logistic model: historical data, clinical and laboratory data obtained within the first 24 hours of diagnosis, and specific data related to chest X-ray and bronchoalveolar lavage results.

Results: The sum of arterial partial pressure of oxygen and carbon dioxide (PaO2 + PaCO2) and serum albumin level best predicted a fatal outcome in multivariate analysis.

Conclusion: The logistic equation provided by the model might be used to accurately and quickly identify the patients with severe Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia who might benefit from supportive intensive care.