The Changing Concentration of the Older Nonmetropolitan Population, 1960-90

Changes in the absolute and relative size of the elderly population since 1960 are decomposed into the underlying demographic components for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas and for subregions of the United States. Specifically, we examine the components of net migration and natural increase for those aged 0-64 and those 65 or older. Generally, the natural increase component for those 65 and over has increased since 1960, whereas that for those under 65 has declined. Metropolitan areas have consistently lost, and nonmetropolitan areas gained elderly migrants. Trends in elderly population change are far from uniform across nonmetropolitan America. In general, the "aging" of the nonmetropolitan population was predominantly due to elderly migration during the 1970-80 decade, and to the loss of young people both before and afterward. Recent trends give little support for the view that the 1970s was the beginning of a new phase of deconcentrated settlement, even for elderly persons.