Mechanistic Phylodynamic Models Do Not Provide Conclusive Evidence That Non-avian Dinosaurs Were in Decline Before Their Final Extinction

Phylodynamic models can be used to estimate diversification trajectories from time-calibrated phylogenies. Here we apply two such models to phylogenies of non-avian dinosaurs, a clade whose evolutionary history has been widely debated. Although some authors have suggested that the clade experienced a decline in diversity, potentially starting millions of years before the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, others have suggested that the group remained highly diverse right up until the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. Our results show that model assumptions, likely with respect to incomplete sampling, have a large impact on whether dinosaurs appear to have experienced a long-term decline or not. The results are also highly sensitive to the topology and branch lengths of the phylogeny used. Developing comprehensive models of sampling bias, and building larger and more accurate phylogenies, are likely to be necessary steps for us to determine whether dinosaur diversity was or was not in decline before the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.