Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma from 1990 to 2021 and Prediction to 2045

Overview

Journal Front Oncol

Date 2025 Jan 8

PMID 39777336

Authors

Chengling Liu

Xingchen Liu

Li Hu

Xin Li

Haiming Xin

Sailin Zhu

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma (CMM) is a significant global health challenge. Understanding regional differences in CMM prevalence and trends is crucial for developing targeted strategies. To address this, we analyzed epidemiological patterns and investigated risk factors for CMM-related mortality.

Methods: This study analyzed CMM using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases survey, covering 204 countries and territories. We evaluated the number and age-standardized rates of prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Trends were stratified by region, country, age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model projected future prevalence, mortality, and DALYs, while decomposition analysis identified key drivers of CMM burden. Frontier analysis further associated CMM outcomes with socio-demographic development.

Results: In 2021, the global prevalence of CMM reached 833,215 cases, a 161.3% increase since 1990. During this period, the ASPR rose from 19.13 to 25.37 per 100,000, while the ASMR declined from 0.84 to 0.73 per 100,000. DALYs increased by 60.5%, from 1,045,777 to 1,678,836. The high SDI region had the highest ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR. Decomposition analysis identified population growth, demographic aging, and epidemiological changes as equal drivers of CMM DALYs globally. Countries like New Zealand and Australia demonstrated the most significant effective differences, indicating potential for improvement in CMM management. By 2045, the global ASPR is projected to rise to 36.61, with ASMR and ASDR expected to decrease to 0.79 and 10.21 per 100,000.

Conclusion: CMM poses an increasing global health concern, with ASPR steadily rising. While this analysis shows a decline in global ASMR and ASDR overall, these rates are actually increasing in low SDI regions, and projections indicate that this trend will likely continue until 2045.

References

Ruan R, Liu X, Zhang Y, Tang M, He B, Zhang Q . Global, Regional, and National Advances Toward the Management of Rheumatic Heart Disease Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. J Am Heart Assoc. 2023; 12(13):e028921. PMC: 10356074. DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.122.028921. View

Ralli M, Botticelli A, Visconti I, Angeletti D, Fiore M, Marchetti P . Immunotherapy in the Treatment of Metastatic Melanoma: Current Knowledge and Future Directions. J Immunol Res. 2020; 2020:9235638. PMC: 7338969. DOI: 10.1155/2020/9235638. View

Wang R, Li Z, Liu S, Zhang D . Global, regional and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. BMJ Open. 2023; 13(3):e065186. PMC: 10069527. DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065186. View

Zhang Y, Dong S, Ma Y, Mou Y . Burden of psoriasis in young adults worldwide from the global burden of disease study 2019. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2024; 15:1308822. PMC: 10897041. DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2024.1308822. View

Schadendorf D, van Akkooi A, Berking C, Griewank K, Gutzmer R, Hauschild A . Melanoma. Lancet. 2018; 392(10151):971-984. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31559-9. View

Huang J, Chan S, Ko S, Lok V, Zhang L, Lin X . Global Incidence, Mortality, Risk Factors and Trends of Melanoma: A Systematic Analysis of Registries. Am J Clin Dermatol. 2023; 24(6):965-975. DOI: 10.1007/s40257-023-00795-3. View

. Genomic Classification of Cutaneous Melanoma. Cell. 2015; 161(7):1681-96. PMC: 4580370. DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2015.05.044. View

Shain A, Yeh I, Kovalyshyn I, Sriharan A, Talevich E, Gagnon A . The Genetic Evolution of Melanoma from Precursor Lesions. N Engl J Med. 2015; 373(20):1926-36. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1502583. View

Whiteman D, Green A, Olsen C . The Growing Burden of Invasive Melanoma: Projections of Incidence Rates and Numbers of New Cases in Six Susceptible Populations through 2031. J Invest Dermatol. 2016; 136(6):1161-1171. DOI: 10.1016/j.jid.2016.01.035. View

10.

Pu Y, He L, Wang X, Zhang Y, Zhao S, Fan J . Global, regional, and national levels and trends in burden of urticaria: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. J Glob Health. 2024; 14:04095. PMC: 11140429. DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04095. View

11.

Gandini S, Autier P, Boniol M . Reviews on sun exposure and artificial light and melanoma. Prog Biophys Mol Biol. 2011; 107(3):362-6. DOI: 10.1016/j.pbiomolbio.2011.09.011. View

12.

Schadendorf D, Fisher D, Garbe C, Gershenwald J, Grob J, Halpern A . Melanoma. Nat Rev Dis Primers. 2016; 1:15003. DOI: 10.1038/nrdp.2015.3. View

13.

Secinti I, Gursoy D, Erturk T, Dede I, Ozgur T, Dogan E . Should we report Breslow density, a new concept in cutaneous melanoma?. Malays J Pathol. 2021; 43(3):397-404. View

14.

Bujoreanu F, Bezman L, Radaschin D, Niculet E, Bobeica C, Craescu M . Nevi, biologics for psoriasis and the risk for skin cancer: A real concern? (Case presentation and short review). Exp Ther Med. 2021; 22(6):1354. PMC: 8515562. DOI: 10.3892/etm.2021.10789. View

15.

Zhang K, Kan C, Han F, Zhang J, Ding C, Guo Z . Global, Regional, and National Epidemiology of Diabetes in Children From 1990 to 2019. JAMA Pediatr. 2023; 177(8):837-846. PMC: 10318549. DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2023.2029. View

16.

Apalla Z, Lallas A, Sotiriou E, Lazaridou E, Ioannides D . Epidemiological trends in skin cancer. Dermatol Pract Concept. 2017; 7(2):1-6. PMC: 5424654. DOI: 10.5826/dpc.0702a01. View

17.

Rastrelli M, Tropea S, Rossi C, Alaibac M . Melanoma: epidemiology, risk factors, pathogenesis, diagnosis and classification. In Vivo. 2014; 28(6):1005-11. View

18.

Yang K, Yang X, Jin C, Ding S, Liu T, Ma B . Global burden of type 1 diabetes in adults aged 65 years and older, 1990-2019: population based study. BMJ. 2024; 385:e078432. PMC: 11167563. DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-078432. View

19.

Nwabudike L, Oproiu A, Dogaru I, Costache M, Onisor C, Tatu A . Therapy Delayed is Therapy Denied: A Case Report of Melanoma Misdiagnosed as Diabetic Foot Ulcer. Clin Cosmet Investig Dermatol. 2022; 14:1909-1912. PMC: 8720861. DOI: 10.2147/CCID.S337545. View

20.

Wang K, Zhao Y, Cao X . Global burden and future trends in psoriasis epidemiology: insights from the global burden of disease study 2019 and predictions to 2030. Arch Dermatol Res. 2024; 316(4):114. DOI: 10.1007/s00403-024-02846-z. View