Putative Past, Present, and Future Spatial Distributions of Deep-sea Coral and Sponge Microbiomes Revealed by Predictive Models

Knowledge of spatial distribution patterns of biodiversity is key to evaluate and ensure ocean integrity and resilience. Especially for the deep ocean, where in situ monitoring requires sophisticated instruments and considerable financial investments, modeling approaches are crucial to move from scattered data points to predictive continuous maps. Those modeling approaches are commonly run on the macrobial level, but spatio-temporal predictions of host-associated microbiomes are not being targeted. This is especially problematic as previous research has highlighted that host-associated microbes may display distribution patterns that are not perfectly correlated not only with host biogeographies, but also with other factors, such as prevailing environmental conditions. We here establish a new simulation approach and present predicted spatio-temporal distribution patterns of deep-sea sponge and coral microbiomes, making use of a combination of environmental data, host data, and microbiome data. This approach allows predictions of microbiome spatio-temporal distribution patterns on scales that are currently not covered by classical sampling approaches at sea. In summary, our presented predictions allow (i) identification of microbial biodiversity hotspots in the past, present, and future, (ii) trait-based predictions to link microbial with macrobial biodiversity, and (iii) identification of shifts in microbial community composition (key taxa) across environmental gradients and shifting environmental conditions.