Post-Operative Outcome Predictions in Vestibular Schwannoma Using Machine Learning Algorithms

This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) algorithm that can predict unplanned reoperations and surgical/medical complications after vestibular schwannoma (VS) surgery. All pre- and peri-operative variables available in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database (n = 110), except those directly related to our outcome variables, were used as input variables. A deep neural network model consisting of seven layers was developed using the Keras open-source library, with a 70:30 breakdown for training and testing. The feature importance of input variables was measured to elucidate their relative permutation effect in the ML model. Of the 1783 patients with VS undergoing surgery, unplanned reoperation, surgical complications, and medical complications were seen in 8.5%, 5.2%, and 6.2% of patients, respectively. The deep neural network model had area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics (ROC-AUC) of 0.6315 (reoperation), 0.7939 (medical complications), and 0.719 (surgical complications). Accuracy, specificity, and negative predictive values of the model for all outcome variables ranged from 82.1 to 96.6%, while positive predictive values and sensitivity ranged from 16.7 to 51.5%. Variables such as the length of stay post-operation until discharge, days from operation to discharge, and the total hospital length of stay had the highest permutation importance. We developed an effective ML algorithm predicting unplanned reoperation and surgical/medical complications post-VS surgery. This may offer physicians guidance into potential post-surgical outcomes to allow for personalized medical care plans for VS patients.