A Significant and Persistent Rise in the Global Burden of Adolescent NAFLD and NASH Estimated by BMI

Overview

Journal Front Public Health

Specialty Public Health

Date 2024 Nov 11

PMID 39525454

Authors

Xiao-Yun Lin

Jing-Mao Li

Ling-Yi Huang

Li-Yan Lin

Mei-Zhu Hong

Shangeng Weng

Jin-Shui Pan

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Currently, there is a lack of global or even country/regional level data on adolescent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) prevalence. However, an evidenced dose-dependent relationship exists between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of NAFLD. We aim to estimate the global and regional prevalence of adolescent NAFLD and related non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) based on BMI.

Methods: Sigmoidal fitting curves were generated between BMI and the risk of NAFLD/NASH using the data extracted from the NHANES database. With global and regional BMI data from the NCD-RisC database, adolescent NAFLD/NASH prevalence was estimated at the international, regional, and country levels from 1975 to 2016. The prevalence of adolescent NAFLD/NASH from 2017 to 2030 was also forecasted.

Results: The mean NAFLD prevalence was 15.31, and 12.68%, while the mean NASH prevalence was 2.50, and 2.47%, in boys, and girls aged 12-18, respectively. For both boys and girls, NAFLD/NASH prevalence increased with increasing BMI, and age. The global prevalence of adolescent NAFLD/NASH has gradually increased in the period from 1975 to 2016 and will maintain a similar trend between 2017 and 2030. High-income Western Countries had higher adolescent NAFLD/NASH whereas South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa exhibited relatively lower adolescent NAFLD/NASH prevalence. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of NAFLD prevalence in boys ranged from 0.72% (age 18) to 1.16% (age 12) while that in girls ranged from 0.69% (age 18) to 0.92% (age 12). EAPC of NASH prevalence in boys ranged from 1.65% (age 18) to 1.77% (age 12), and in girls from 1.48% (age 18) to 1.68% (age 12).

Conclusion: The adolescent NAFLD/NASH prevalence increases year by year, and its burden varies significantly among different countries and regions. BMI is a precise predictor of NAFLD/NASH prevalence.

Citing Articles

A positive relationship between weight-adjusted waist index and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a study on US adolescents.

Cui X, Huang Y, Kang L, Han L, Sun W, Han K Front Med (Lausanne). 2025; 11():1424667.

PMID: 39845834 PMC: 11753237. DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1424667.

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