Ruminant-dense Environments Increase Risk of Shiga Toxin-producing Independently of Ruminant Contact

Cattle and other domestic ruminants are the primary reservoirs of O157 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing (STEC). Living in areas with high ruminant density has been associated with excess risk of infection, which could be due to both direct ruminant contact and residual environmental risk, but the role of each is unclear. We investigated whether there is any meaningful risk to individuals living in ruminant-dense areas if they do not have direct contact with ruminants. Using a Bayesian spatial framework, we investigated the association between the density of ruminants on feedlots and STEC incidence in Minnesota from 2010 to 2019, stratified by serogroup and season, and adjusting for direct ruminant contact. For every additional head of cattle or sheep per 10 acres, the incidence of O157 STEC infection increased by 30% (IRR 1.30; 95% CrI 1.18, 1.42) or 135% (IRR 2.35; 95% CrI 1.14, 4.20), respectively, during the summer months. Sheep density was also associated with O157 STEC risk during winter (IRR 4.28; 95% CrI 1.40, 8.92). The risk of non-O157 STEC infection was only elevated in areas with goat operations during summer (IRR 19.6; 95% CrI 1.69, 78.8). STEC risk associated with ruminant density was independent of direct ruminant contact across serogroups and seasons. Our findings demonstrate that living in a ruminant-dense area increases an individual's risk of O157 and non-O157 STEC infection even without direct ruminant contact, indicating that prevention efforts need to extend to community strategies for averting indirect transmission from local ruminant populations.