Projected Impact of Fast-tracking of Anti-retroviral Treatment Coverage on Vertical Transmission of HIV in India

One of the five high-level goals under Phase V of the National AIDS and STD Control Programme (NACP) of the Government of India is the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of maintaining and enhancing the anti-retroviral treatment under the NACP in terms of averting new infections and vertical transmission rates vis-à-vis no intervention scenario. We used India's HIV Estimates 2022 models to create treatment coverage scenarios of no interventions, status quo, business as usual, on-track and fast-track scenarios from 2023 to 2030. Our analysis indicates that fast-tracking scale-up of treatment services would avert almost 41000 child infections from 2023 to 2030 leading to a vertical transmission rate of around 7.70% in 2030 vis-a-vis no interventions scenario. Higher and sustained ART coverage would not only take the country closer to the elimination goals but would also prevent thousands of vertical transmissions, thus bringing a lot of benefits to HIV-positive pregnant women and their families. Supported by efforts for the prevention of new infections in the general population, India is on track for the attainment of elimination of vertical transmission of HIV by 2030.