Developing an Ensemble Machine Learning Study: Insights from a Multi-center Proof-of-concept Study

Background: To address the numerous unmeet clinical needs, in recent years several Machine Learning models applied to medical images and clinical data have been introduced and developed. Even when they achieve encouraging results, they lack evolutionary progression, thus perpetuating their status as autonomous entities. We postulated that different algorithms which have been proposed in the literature to address the same diagnostic task, can be aggregated to enhance classification performance. We suggested a proof of concept to define an ensemble approach useful for integrating different algorithms proposed to solve the same clinical task.

Methods: The proposed approach was developed starting from a public database consisting of radiomic features extracted from CT images relating to 535 patients suffering from lung cancer. Seven algorithms were trained independently by participants in the AI4MP working group on Artificial Intelligence of the Italian Association of Physics in Medicine to discriminate metastatic from non-metastatic patients. The classification scores generated by these algorithms are used to train SVM classifier. The Explainable Artificial Intelligence approach is applied to the final model. The ensemble model was validated following an 80-20 hold-out and leave-one-out scheme on the training set.

Results: Compared to individual algorithms, a more accurate result was achieved. On the independent test the ensemble model achieved an accuracy of 0.78, a F1-score of 0.57 and a log-loss of 0.49. Shapley values representing the contribution of each algorithm to the final classification result of the ensemble model were calculated. This information represents an added value for the end user useful for evaluating the appropriateness of the classification result on a particular case. It also allows us to evaluate on a global level which methodological approaches of the individual algorithms are likely to have the most impact.

Conclusion: Our proposal represents an innovative approach useful for integrating different algorithms that populate the literature and which lays the foundations for future evaluations in broader application scenarios.