Famine Mortality and Contributions to Later-life Type 2 Diabetes at the Population Level: a Synthesis of Findings from Ukrainian, Dutch and Chinese Famines

Since the 1970s, influential literature has been using famines as natural experiments to examine the long-term health impact of prenatal famine exposure at the individual level. Although studies based on various famines have consistently shown that prenatal famine exposure is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), no studies have yet quantified the contribution of famines to later-life T2D at the population level. We, therefore, synthesised findings from the famines in Ukraine 1932-1933, the Western Netherlands 1944-1945 and China 1959-1961 to make preliminary estimates of T2D cases attributable to prenatal famine exposure. These famines were selected because they provide the most extensive and reliable data from an epidemiological perspective. We observed a consistent increase in T2D risk among prenatally exposed individuals in these famines, which translated into about 21 000, 400 and 0.9 million additional T2D cases due to prenatal famine exposure in Ukraine, Western Netherlands and China, respectively. The T2D increase related to famine exposure represented only around 1% of prevalent T2D cases in these countries. Our observations highlight the significant increase in later-life T2D risk among individuals with prenatal famine exposure but also the limited contribution of prenatal famine exposure to T2D epidemics at the population level.