Colorectal Cancer Recurrence Prediction Using a Tissue-Free Epigenomic Minimal Residual Disease Assay

Purpose: Posttreatment detection of ctDNA is strongly predictive of recurrence. Most minimal/molecular residual disease assays require prior tissue testing to guide ctDNA analysis, resulting in lengthy time to initial results and unevaluable patients.

Experimental Design: We assessed a tissue-free assay (Guardant Reveal) that bioinformatically evaluates >20,000 epigenomic regions for ctDNA detection in 1,977 longitudinally collected postoperative plasma samples from 342 patients with resected colorectal cancer.

Results: We observed sensitive and specific detection of minimal/molecular residual disease associated with clinically meaningful differences in recurrence-free intervals at each time point evaluated with a median lead time of 5.3 months. The longitudinal sensitivity in stage II or higher colon cancer was 81%. Sensitivity increased with serial measurement and varied by recurrence site: higher for liver (100%) versus lung (53%) and peritoneal (40%). Sensitivity among patients with rectal cancer was 60% owing to a high proportion of lung metastases. Specificity was 98.2% among 1,461 posttreatment samples (99.1% among those with follow-up longer than the upper IQR of the lead time observed in this study).

Conclusions: Our data demonstrate the potential clinical utility of ctDNA as a tool to improve the management of stage II and higher colorectal cancer with a methodology that is noninvasive, accessible, and allows for rapid evaluation to inform clinical decisions.