The Influence of Realistic 3D Mantle Viscosity on Antarctica's Contribution to Future Global Sea Levels

Overview

Journal Sci Adv

Specialties Biology
Science

Date 2024 Aug 2

PMID 39093962

Authors

Natalya Gomez

Maryam Yousefi

David Pollard

Robert M DeConto

Shaina Sadai

Andrew Lloyd

Andrew Nyblade

Douglas A Wiens

Richard C Aster

Terry Wilson

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica's contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

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