Risk Assessment of Hepatitis B Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development Using Vibration-controlled Transient Elastography: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Backgrounds/aims: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) can assess fibrotic burden in chronic liver diseases. The systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine whether LSM using VCTE can predict the risk of development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.

Methods: A systematic literature search of the Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases (from January 2010 to June 2023) was conducted. Of the 1,345 individual studies identified, 10 studies that used VCTE were finally registered. Hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were considered summary estimates of treatment effect sizes of ≥11 kilopascal (kPa) standard for HCC development. Meta-analysis was performed using the restricted Maximum Likelihood random effects model.

Results: Among the ten studies, data for risk ratios for HCC development could be obtained from nine studies. When analyzed for the nine studies, the HR for HCC development was high at 3.33 (95% CI, 2.45-4.54) in CHB patients with a baseline LSM of ≥11 kPa compared to patients who did not. In ten studies included, LSM of ≥11 kPa showed the sensitivity and specificity for predicting HCC development were 61% (95% CI, 50-71%) and 78% (95% CI, 66-86%), respectively, and the diagnostic accuracy was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.70-0.77).

Conclusion: The risk of HCC development was elevated in CHB patients with VCTE-determined LSM of ≥11 kPa. This finding suggests that VCTE-determined LSM values may aid the risk prediction of HCC development in CHB patients.