Seasonality of the Incidence of Bronchiolitis in Infants - Brazil, 2016-2022: An Interrupted Time-series Analysis

Overview

Journal Rev Paul Pediatr

Specialty Pediatrics

Date 2024 Jul 10

PMID 38985050

Authors

Frederico Friedrich

Magali Santos Lumertz

Lucas Montiel Petry

Marina Puerari Pieta

Luana Braga Bittencourt

Bruno Brocker Nunes

Laura de Castro E Garcia

Marcos Otavio Brum Antunes

Marcelo Comerlato Scotta

Renato Tetelbom Stein

Marcus Herbert Jones

Talitha Comaru

Leonardo Araujo Pinto

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the seasonality of acute bronchiolitis in Brazil during the 2020-2022 season and compare it with the previous seasons.

Methods: Data from the incidence of hospitalizations due to acute bronchiolitis in infants <1 year of age were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Public Health database for the period between 2016 and 2022. These data were also analyzed by macro-regions of Brazil (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). To describe seasonal and trend characteristics over time, we used the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages Model.

Results: Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the incidence of hospitalizations related to acute bronchiolitis decreased by 97% during non-pharmacological interventions (March 2020 - August 2021) but increased by 95% after non-pharmacological interventions relaxation (September 2021 - December 2022), resulting in a 16% overall increase. During the pre-COVID-19 period, hospitalizations for acute bronchiolitis followed a seasonal pattern, which was disrupted in 2020-2021 but recovered in 2022, with a peak occurring in May, approximately 4% higher than the pre-COVID-19 peak.

Conclusions: This study underscores the significant influence of COVID-19 interventions on acute bronchiolitis hospitalizations in Brazil. The restoration of a seasonal pattern in 2022 highlights the interplay between public health measures and respiratory illness dynamics in young children.

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