Land-cover Change in Cuba and Implications for the Area of Distribution of a Specialist's Host-plant

Changes in land cover directly affect biodiversity. Here, we assessed land-cover change in Cuba in the past 35 years and analyzed how this change may affect the distribution of plants and moths. We analyzed the vegetation cover of the Cuban archipelago for 1985 and 2020. We used Google Earth Engine to classify two satellite image compositions into seven cover types: forest and shrubs, mangrove, soil without vegetation cover, wetlands, pine forest, agriculture, and water bodies. We considered four different areas for quantifications of land-cover change: (1) Cuban archipelago, (2) protected areas, (3) areas of potential distribution of , and (4) areas of potential distribution of the plant within the protected areas. We found that "forest and shrubs", which is cover type in which populations have been reported, has increased significantly in Cuba in the past 35 years, and that most of the gained forest and shrub areas were agricultural land in the past. This same pattern was observed in the areas of potential distribution of ; whereas almost all cover types were mostly stable inside the protected areas. The transformation of agricultural areas into forest and shrubs could represent an interesting opportunity for biodiversity conservation in Cuba. Other detailed studies about biodiversity composition in areas of forest and shrubs gain would greatly benefit our understanding of the value of such areas for conservation.