Predicting the Potential Distribution of Under Climate Change Scenarios Using a Maximum Entropy Model

Overview

Journal Biology (Basel)

Publisher MDPI

Specialty Biology

Date 2024 Jun 27

PMID 38927332

Authors

Yulan Hao

Pengbin Dong

Liyang Wang

Xiao Ke

Xiaofeng Hao

Gang He

Yuan Chen

Fengxia Guo

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

, as one of the Traditional Chinese Medicinal materials, possesses a variety of pharmacological activities and high medicinal value. However, in recent years, the wild resources of have been severely depleted due to global climate change and human activities, and artificial cultivation faces problems such as unstable yield and active ingredient content. This poses a serious obstacle to the development and utilization of its resources. Therefore, this experiment took as the research object and used 894 distribution records of and 36 climatic environmental factors, using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology to explore the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of . Additionally, by utilizing the principles of ecological niche theory, the potential suitable distribution regions of across past, present, and future timelines were predicted, which can ascertain the dynamics of its spatial distribution patterns and the trend of centroid migration. The results indicate that the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of are solar radiation in April (Srad4), solar radiation in September (Srad9), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), solar radiation in November (Srad11), annual mean temperature (Bio1), and annual precipitation (Bio12). Under future climate scenarios, there is a remarkable trend of expansion in the suitable distribution areas of . The centroid migration indicates a trend of migration towards the northwest direction and high-altitude areas. These results can provide a scientific basis for formulating conservation and sustainable use management strategies for resources.

References

Roger E, Duursma D, Downey P, Gallagher R, Hughes L, Steel J . A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change. J Environ Manage. 2015; 159:121-127. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.05.039. View

Xu W, Wu F, Wang H, Zhao L, Liu X, Xiang P . Key soil parameters affecting the survival of Panax notoginseng under continuous cropping. Sci Rep. 2021; 11(1):5656. PMC: 7970953. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-85171-z. View

Chen I, Hill J, Ohlemuller R, Roy D, Thomas C . Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science. 2011; 333(6045):1024-6. DOI: 10.1126/science.1206432. View

Radulovic N, Gencic M, Stojanovic N, Randjelovic P, Baldovini N, Kurteva V . Prenylated β-diketones, two new additions to the family of biologically active Hypericum perforatum L. (Hypericaceae) secondary metabolites. Food Chem Toxicol. 2018; 118:505-513. DOI: 10.1016/j.fct.2018.05.009. View

Pysek P, Hulme P, Simberloff D, Bacher S, Blackburn T, Carlton J . Scientists' warning on invasive alien species. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2020; 95(6):1511-1534. PMC: 7687187. DOI: 10.1111/brv.12627. View

Murch S, Choffe K, Victor J, Slimmon T, KrishnaRaj S, Saxena P . Thidiazuron-induced plant regeneration from hypocotyl cultures of St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum. cv 'Anthos'). Plant Cell Rep. 2019; 19(6):576-581. DOI: 10.1007/s002990050776. View

Zuo Y, He Y, Wang L, Sa W, Shang Q, Liang J . Change of geographic distributions of the genus species responding to climate oscillations in East Asia. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2023; 34(3):777-786. DOI: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202303.027. View

Napoli E, Siracusa L, Ruberto G, Carrubba A, Lazzara S, Speciale A . Phytochemical profiles, phototoxic and antioxidant properties of eleven Hypericum species - A comparative study. Phytochemistry. 2018; 152:162-173. DOI: 10.1016/j.phytochem.2018.05.003. View

Shakya P, Marslin G, Siram K, Beerhues L, Franklin G . Elicitation as a tool to improve the profiles of high-value secondary metabolites and pharmacological properties of Hypericum perforatum. J Pharm Pharmacol. 2017; 71(1):70-82. PMC: 6585710. DOI: 10.1111/jphp.12743. View

10.

Thomas C, MacGill R, Miller G, Pardini R . Photoactivation of hypericin generates singlet oxygen in mitochondria and inhibits succinoxidase. Photochem Photobiol. 1992; 55(1):47-53. DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-1097.1992.tb04208.x. View

11.

Thomas C, Cameron A, Green R, Bakkenes M, Beaumont L, Collingham Y . Extinction risk from climate change. Nature. 2004; 427(6970):145-8. DOI: 10.1038/nature02121. View

12.

Swets J . Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science. 1988; 240(4857):1285-93. DOI: 10.1126/science.3287615. View

13.

Linde K, Ramirez G, Mulrow C, Pauls A, Weidenhammer W, Melchart D . St John's wort for depression--an overview and meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials. BMJ. 1996; 313(7052):253-8. PMC: 2351679. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.313.7052.253. View

14.

Evstifeeva T, Sibiriak S . [The immunotropic properties of biologically active products obtained from Klamath weed (Hypericum perforatum L.)]. Eksp Klin Farmakol. 1996; 59(1):51-4. View