Using Explainable Machine Learning and Fitbit Data to Investigate Predictors of Adolescent Obesity

Sociodemographic and lifestyle factors (sleep, physical activity, and sedentary behavior) may predict obesity risk in early adolescence; a critical period during the life course. Analyzing data from 2971 participants (M = 11.94, SD = 0.64 years) wearing Fitbit Charge HR 2 devices in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, glass box machine learning models identified obesity predictors from Fitbit-derived measures of sleep, cardiovascular fitness, and sociodemographic status. Key predictors of obesity include identifying as Non-White race, low household income, later bedtime, short sleep duration, variable sleep timing, low daily step counts, and high heart rates (AUC = 0.726). Findings highlight the importance of inadequate sleep, physical inactivity, and socioeconomic disparities, for obesity risk. Results also show the clinical applicability of wearables for continuous monitoring of sleep and cardiovascular fitness in adolescents. Identifying the tipping points in the predictors of obesity risk can inform interventions and treatment strategies to reduce obesity rates in adolescents.