Predicting the Prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes in Brazil: a Modeling Study

Overview

Journal Front Public Health

Specialty Public Health

Date 2024 May 17

PMID 38756893

Authors

Patricia Vasconcelos Leitao Moreira

Adelia da Costa Pereira de Arruda Neta

Flavia Emilia Leite Lima Ferreira

Jevuks Matheus de Araujo

Romulo Eufrosino de Alencar Rodrigues

Rafaela Lira Formiga Cavalcanti de Lima

Rodrigo Pinheiro de Toledo Vianna

Jose Moreira da Silva Neto

Martin Oflaherty

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Aims: We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity.

Methods: The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence. We developed a model for the Brazilian population from 2006 to 2036. Data on the Brazilian population in relation to sex and age were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and data on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and smoking were collected from the Surveillance of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL).

Results: The observed prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Brazilians aged over 25 years was 10.8% (5.2-14.3%) in 2006, increasing to 13.7% (6.9-18.4%) in 2020. Between 2006 and 2020, the observed prevalence in men increased from 11.0 to 19.1% and women from 10.6 to 21.3%. The model forecasts a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2036 (27.0% overall, 17.1% in men and 35.9% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declines by 1% per year from 2020 to 2036 (Scenario 1), the prevalence of diabetes decreases from 26.3 to 23.7, which represents approximately a 10.0% drop in 16 years. If obesity declined by 5% per year in 16 years as an optimistic target (Scenario 2), the prevalence of diabetes decreased from 26.3 to 21.2, representing a 19.4% drop in diabetes prevalence.

Conclusion: The model predicts an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil. Even with ambitious targets to reduce obesity prevalence, type 2 diabetes in Brazil will continue to have a large impact on Brazilian public health.

Citing Articles

Individualized selection of recent glucose monitoring devices for self-management based on competitive features.

Krylova O, Marchenko S, Ermolaeva A, Shustikova N, Dyakonova K Pak J Med Sci. 2024; 40(8):1853-1859.

PMID: 39281234 PMC: 11395364. DOI: 10.12669/pjms.40.8.9855.

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