Real-world Overall Survival and Characteristics of Patients with ER-zero and ER-low HER2-negative Breast Cancer Treated As Triple-negative Breast Cancer: a Swedish Population-based Cohort Study

Background: Estrogen receptor-low (ER-low) HER2-negative breast cancer has similar pathological and molecular characteristics as triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), and it is questionable whether it should be considered a separate entity. When the international guidelines lowered the cutoff for ER positivity to ≥1% in 2010, the ≥10% threshold was kept in Sweden. ER-low breast cancer (ER 1-9%) is thus in Sweden treated as TNBC. We aimed to describe patient and tumor characteristics, treatment patterns and overall survival in a Swedish population-based cohort of patients with ER-zero and ER-low HER2-negative breast cancer treated as TNBC.

Methods: All TNBC cases diagnosed in Sweden 2008-2020 were included in a population-based cohort study. Patient, tumor and treatment characteristics were analyzed by ER-status (ER 0% vs 1-9%), and associations between subgroups compared using χ test. Survival endpoint was overall survival (OS), and Kaplan-Meier curves were estimated. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios comparing ER-low to ER-zero.

Findings: Of the 5655 tumors, 90.1% had an ER expression of 0%, while 9.9% were ER-low. ER-low tumors were grade III in 69.4% (80.8% in ER-zero tumors, p-value = 0.001), with a median Ki67 of 60% (63% in ER-zero tumors, p-value = 0.005). There were no significant differences in given chemotherapy (p = 0.546). A pathological complete response (pCR) was achieved in 28.1% of ER-low tumors (25.1% in ER-zero tumors). In the unadjusted analysis of OS, women with ER-low disease had a borderline but not significantly better OS than those with ER-zero disease (HR 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-1.00), p = 0.052). ER-status 1-9% vs 0% was not associated with OS in the multivariable analysis (HR 1.11 (0.90-1.36)). Distant disease-free survival did not differ by ER-status 0% vs 1-9% (HR 0.97 for ER-zero vs ER-low (0.62-1.53), p = 0.905). After preoperative treatment, the impact of pCR for OS did not significantly differ between ER-zero or ER-low disease.

Interpretation: ER-low HER2-negative breast cancer has characteristics and prognosis similar to TNBC, when treated in the same way. Therefore, it seems reasonable to use a ≥10% threshold for ER positivity. This would provide patients with ER-low tumors the same treatment opportunities as patients with TNBC, within studies and within clinical routine.

Funding: This work was financially supported by Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA, in accordance with terms and conditions of a Master Collaboration Agreement between the company and Karolinska Institutet.