Article: A macroeconomic model of an epidemic with silent transmission and endogenous self-isolation

I study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model where: (i) agents allocate their time to market and home production and social and home leisure, (ii) these activities differ in their degree of contagiousness, (iii) some infected individuals are indistinguishable from susceptible individuals and (iv) agents are not necessarily rational. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic, I find that agents partially self-isolate by allocating more time to home activities and that the effective reproduction number of the disease stabilizes at 1. Detection and isolation of infected individuals severely mitigate the recession and deaths caused by the pandemic.

Citing Articles

COVID-19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario.

Casares M, Gomme P, Khan H Can J Econ. 2024; 55(Suppl 1):503-539.

PMID: 38607849 PMC: 9111884. DOI: 10.1111/caje.12564.

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A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation