Maximizing Carbon Sequestration Potential in Chinese Forests Through Optimal Management

Overview

Journal Nat Commun

Specialty Biology

Date 2024 Apr 11

PMID 38605043

Authors

Zhen Yu

Shirong Liu

Haikui Li

Jingjing Liang

Weiguo Liu

Shilong Piao

Hanqin Tian

Guoyi Zhou

Chaoqun Lu

Weibin You

Pengsen Sun

Yanli Dong

Stephen Sitch

Evgenios Agathokleous

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 permanent plots, revealing an expansion in biomass carbon stock by 13.6 ± 1.5 Pg C from 2020 to 2100, with additional sink through augmentation of wood product pool (0.6-2.0 Pg C) and spatiotemporal optimization of forest management (2.3 ± 0.03 Pg C). We find that statistical model might cause large bias in long-term projection due to underrepresentation or neglect of wood harvest and forest demographic changes. Remarkably, disregarding the repercussions of harvesting on forest age can result in a premature shift in the timing of the carbon sink peak by 1-3 decades. Our findings emphasize the pressing necessity for the swift implementation of optimal forest management strategies for carbon sequestration enhancement.

Citing Articles

It is time to optimize forest management policy for both carbon sinks and wood harvest in China.

Li X, Zhang H, Shang R, Chen J, Wang D, Zhu J Natl Sci Rev. 2025; 12(4):nwae464.

PMID: 40060926 PMC: 11887849. DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwae464.

Coupling process of carbon sink service flow based on metacoupling framework.

Zhang Y, Guan D, Zhou L, Xi Q, Liu X, Cao J Sci Rep. 2025; 15(1):6594.

PMID: 39994377 PMC: 11850615. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-90606-y.

Effects of forest age and stand density on the growth, soil moisture content, and soil carbon content of Populus simoni plantations in the sandy area of western Liaoning, Northeast China.

Chen H, Zhang Z, Yang X, Ai X, Wang Y, Liu P Sci Rep. 2025; 15(1):2499.

PMID: 39833285 PMC: 11747169. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-86215-4.

Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China's land carbon balance.

Yue C, Xu M, Ciais P, Tao S, Shen H, Chang J Nat Commun. 2024; 15(1):9708.

PMID: 39521789 PMC: 11550817. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54100-9.

The Long-Term Effects of Barren Land Afforestation on Plant Productivity, Soil Fertility, and Soil Moisture in China: A Meta-Analysis.

Liu Y, Qin F, Li L, Dong X, Liu L, Yang L Plants (Basel). 2024; 13(12).

PMID: 38931046 PMC: 11207343. DOI: 10.3390/plants13121614.

References

Ju W, Chen J, Harvey D, Wang S . Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2. J Environ Manage. 2006; 85(3):538-62. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.04.028. View

Wang J, Feng L, Palmer P, Liu Y, Fang S, Bosch H . Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data. Nature. 2020; 586(7831):720-723. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2849-9. View

Cai W, He N, Li M, Xu L, Wang L, Zhu J . Carbon sequestration of Chinese forests from 2010 to 2060: spatiotemporal dynamics and its regulatory strategies. Sci Bull (Beijing). 2022; 67(8):836-843. DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2021.12.012. View

Yu Z, Lu C, Tian H, Canadell J . Largely underestimated carbon emission from land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States. Glob Chang Biol. 2019; 25(11):3741-3752. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14768. View

Huang Y, Sun W, Qin Z, Zhang W, Yu Y, Li T . The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO emissions. Natl Sci Rev. 2022; 9(8):nwac057. PMC: 9385465. DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwac057. View

Griscom B, Adams J, Ellis P, Houghton R, Lomax G, Miteva D . Natural climate solutions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017; 114(44):11645-11650. PMC: 5676916. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1710465114. View

Pugh T, Lindeskog M, Smith B, Poulter B, Arneth A, Haverd V . Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019; 116(10):4382-4387. PMC: 6410874. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810512116. View

Keith H, Mackey B, Lindenmayer D . Re-evaluation of forest biomass carbon stocks and lessons from the world's most carbon-dense forests. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009; 106(28):11635-40. PMC: 2701447. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0901970106. View

Wang R, Goll D, Balkanski Y, Hauglustaine D, Boucher O, Ciais P . Global forest carbon uptake due to nitrogen and phosphorus deposition from 1850 to 2100. Glob Chang Biol. 2017; 23(11):4854-4872. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13766. View

10.

Yu Z, Ciais P, Piao S, Houghton R, Lu C, Tian H . Forest expansion dominates China's land carbon sink since 1980. Nat Commun. 2022; 13(1):5374. PMC: 9470586. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32961-2. View

11.

Yao Y, Piao S, Wang T . Future biomass carbon sequestration capacity of Chinese forests. Sci Bull (Beijing). 2023; 63(17):1108-1117. DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2018.07.015. View

12.

Anderegg W, Trugman A, Badgley G, Anderson C, Bartuska A, Ciais P . Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests. Science. 2020; 368(6497). DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz7005. View

13.

Hartmann H, Bastos A, Das A, Esquivel-Muelbert A, Hammond W, Martinez-Vilalta J . Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide. Annu Rev Plant Biol. 2022; 73:673-702. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-102820-012804. View

14.

Yu G, Chen Z, Piao S, Peng C, Ciais P, Wang Q . High carbon dioxide uptake by subtropical forest ecosystems in the East Asian monsoon region. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014; 111(13):4910-5. PMC: 3977309. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1317065111. View

15.

Zhang L, Sun P, Huettmann F, Liu S . Where should China practice forestry in a warming world?. Glob Chang Biol. 2021; 28(7):2461-2475. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16065. View

16.

Hu H, Wang S, Guo Z, Xu B, Fang J . The stage-classified matrix models project a significant increase in biomass carbon stocks in China's forests between 2005 and 2050. Sci Rep. 2015; 5:11203. PMC: 4480144. DOI: 10.1038/srep11203. View

17.

Tian X, Sohngen B, Baker J, Ohrel S, Fawcett A . Will U.S. Forests Continue to Be a Carbon Sink?. Land Econ. 2020; 94:97-113. PMC: 7147820. DOI: 10.3368/le.94.1.97. View

18.

Pan Y, Birdsey R, Fang J, Houghton R, Kauppi P, Kurz W . A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science. 2011; 333(6045):988-93. DOI: 10.1126/science.1201609. View

19.

He N, Wen D, Zhu J, Tang X, Xu L, Zhang L . Vegetation carbon sequestration in Chinese forests from 2010 to 2050. Glob Chang Biol. 2016; 23(4):1575-1584. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13479. View

20.

Shang R, Chen J, Xu M, Lin X, Li P, Yu G . China's current forest age structure will lead to weakened carbon sinks in the near future. Innovation (Camb). 2023; 4(6):100515. PMC: 10542009. DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2023.100515. View