Changes in Threats from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder and Lung Cancer with Environmental Improvements in China: Quantitative Evaluation and Prediction Based on a Model with Age As a Probe

Various indicators can be used to assess threats from chronic diseases. This study presented new indicators of quantitative evaluation and prediction of threats from chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) and lung cancer and assessed relevant changes in these indicators occurring with environmental improvements. Age at zero mortality (AM0) and age at average mortality (AMa) values were calculated based on the regression of the linear relationship of age with mortality for COPD or lung cancer. The lower the AM0 or AMa of a chronic disease, the greater the threats from the disease to a population were considered to be. AM0 values of both diseases were higher in 2019 than in 2004. Moreover, AM0 was lower for lung cancer than for COPD (0.365 vs. 41.643); however, lung cancer and COPD demonstrated almost identical values for age-standardized mortality. AMa values of both the diseases in 2004 and 2019 were within the range of the median age group (70-74 years). In recent years, the overall mortality risk for lung cancer and COPD has decreased with environmental improvement, and aging has played a major role in lung cancer and COPD development. AM0 and AMa values may be used as a theoretical basis for further research on chronic diseases, particularly lung cancer and COPD.