Performance of Radiological and Biochemical Biomarkers in Predicting Radio-Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis Progression

Imaging biomarkers permit improved approaches to identify the most at-risk patients encountering knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression. This study aimed to investigate the utility of trabecular bone texture (TBT) extracted from plain radiographs, associated with a set of clinical, biochemical, and radiographic data, as a predictor of long-term radiographic KOA progression. We used data from the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Biomarkers Consortium dataset. The reference model made use of baseline TBT parameters adjusted for clinical covariates and radiological scores. Several models based on a combination of baseline and 24-month TBT variations (TBT∆TBT) were developed using logistic regression and compared to those based on baseline-only TBT parameters. All models were adjusted for baseline clinical covariates, radiological scores, and biochemical descriptors. The best overall performances for the prediction of radio-symptomatic, radiographic, and symptomatic progression were achieved using TBT∆TBT parameters solely, with area under the ROC curve values of 0.658 (95% CI: 0.612-0.705), 0.752 (95% CI: 0.700-0.804), and 0.698 (95% CI: 0.641-0.756), respectively. Adding biochemical markers did not significantly improve the performance of the TBT∆TBT-based model. Additionally, when TBT values were taken from the entire subchondral bone rather than just the medial, lateral, or central compartments, better results were obtained.