Distribution of Hepatitis C Virus in Eastern China from 2011 to 2020: a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis

Overview

Journal Front Public Health

Specialty Public Health

Date 2024 Mar 7

PMID 38450135

Authors

Dandan Yang

Chuanfeng Zhang

Yuheng Chen

Jing Lu

Yunting Chen

Zhi Zhang

Feifei Chai

Zhendong Zhang

Furu Wang

Baoli Zhu

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the factors influencing this distribution in Jiangsu Province, China, from 2011 to 2020.

Methods: The incidence of reported HCV in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2020 was obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). R and GeoDa software were used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution and the spatial autocorrelation of HCV. A Bayesian spatiotemporal model was constructed to explore the spatiotemporal distribution of HCV in Jiangsu Province and to further analyze the factors related to HCV.

Results: A total of 31,778 HCV patients were registered in Jiangsu Province. The registered incidence rate of HCV increased from 2.60/100,000 people in 2011 to 4.96/100,000 people in 2020, an increase of 190.77%. Moran's ranged from 0.099 to 0.354 ( < 0.05) from 2011 to 2019, indicating a positive spatial correlation overall. The relative risk () of the urbanization rate, the most important factor affecting the spread of HCV in Jiangsu Province, was 1.254 (95% confidence interval: 1.141-1.376), while other factors had no significance.

Conclusion: The reported HCV incidence rate integrally increased in the whole Jiangsu Province, whereas the spatial aggregation of HCV incidence was gradually weakening. Our study highlighted the importance of health education for the floating population and reasonable allocation of medical resources in the future health work.

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