3D Back Contour Metrics in Predicting Idiopathic Scoliosis Progression: Retrospective Cohort Analysis, Case Series Report and Proof of Concept

Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis is a 3D spinal deformity commonly characterized by serial radiographs. Patients with AIS may have increased average radiation exposure compared to unaffected patients and thus may be implicated with a modest increase in cancer risk. To minimize lifetime radiation exposure, alternative imaging modalities such as surface topography are being explored. Surface topography (ST) uses a camera to map anatomic landmarks of the spine and contours of the back to create software-generated spine models. ST has previously shown good correlation to radiographic measures. In this study, we sought to use ST in the creation of a risk stratification model. A total of 38 patients met the inclusion criteria for curve progression prediction. Scoliotic curves were classified as progressing, stabilized, or improving, and a predictive model was created using the proportional odds logistic modeling. The results showed that surface topography was able to moderately appraise scoliosis curvatures when compared to radiographs. The predictive model, using demographic and surface topography measurements, was able to account for 86.9% of the variability in the future Cobb angle. Additionally, attempts at classification of curve progression, stabilization, or improvement were accurately predicted 27/38 times, 71%. These results provide a basis for the creation of a clinical tool in the tracking and prediction of scoliosis progression in order to reduce the number of X-rays required.