Constructing a Nomogram Model to Estimate the Risk of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia for Elderly Patients in the Intensive Care Unit

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) causes heavy losses in terms of finances, hospitalization, and death for elderly patients in the intensive care unit (ICU); however, the risk is difficult to evaluate due to a lack of reliable assessment tools. We aimed to create and validate a nomogram to estimate VAP risk to provide early intervention for high-risk patients.

Methods: Between January 2016 and March 2021, 293 patients from a tertiary hospital in China were retrospectively reviewed as a training set. Another 84 patients were enrolled for model validation from April 2021 to February 2022. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariable logistic regression analysis were employed to select predictors, and a nomogram model was constructed. The calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility of the nomogram were verified. Finally, a web-based online scoring system was created to make the model more practical.

Results: The predictors were hypoproteinemia, long-term combined antibiotic use, intubation time, length of mechanical ventilation, and tracheotomy/intubation. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.937 and 0.925 in the training and validation dataset, respectively, suggesting the model exhibited effective discrimination. The calibration curve demonstrated high consistency with the observed result and the estimated values. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically applicable.

Conclusions: We have created a novel nomogram model that can be utilized to anticipate VAP risk in elderly ICU patients, which is helpful for healthcare professionals to detect patients at high risk early and adopt protective interventions.