An Update of Clinical Value of Circulating Tumor DNA in Esophageal Cancer: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: Esophageal cancer (EC) is a deadly disease with limited therapeutic options. Although circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) could be a promising tool in this regard, the availiable evidence is limited. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the clinical applicability of the next-generation sequencing (NGS) and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) technology on the ctDNA detection of the EC and listed the current challenges.

Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase (via OVID), ISI Web of Science database and Cochrane Library from January, 2000 to April, 2023. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were set as primary outcome endpoints. Pathologic response was evaluated by tumor regression grade (TRG), according to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC). Major pathologic regression (MPR) was defined as TRG 1 and 2. The MPR was set as secondary endpoint. Hazard rate (HR) and associated 95% CI were used as the effect indicators the association between ctDNA and prognosis of EC. MPR rates were also calculated. Fixed-effect model (Inverse Variance) or random-effect model (Mantel-Haenszel method) was performed depending on the statistically heterogeneity.

Results: Twenty-two studies, containing 1144 patients with EC, were included in this meta-analysis. The results showed that OS (HR = 3.87; 95% CI, 2.86-5.23) and PFS (HR = 4.28; 95% CI, 3.34-5.48) were shorter in ctDNA-positive patients. In the neoadjuvant therapy, the sensitivity analysis showed the clarified HR of ctDNA-positive was 1.13(95% CI, 1.01-1.28). We also found that TP53, NOTCH1, CCND1 and CNKN2A are the most frequent mutation genes.

Conclusions: Positive ctDNA is associated with poor prognosis, which demonstrated clinical value of ctDNA. Longitudinal ctDNA monitoring showed potential prognostic value in the neoadjuvant therapy. In an era of precision medicine, ctDNA could be a promising tool to individualize treatment planning and to improve outcomes in EC.

Prospero Registration Number: CRD42023412465.