Analysing the Six-year Malaria Trends at Metehara Health Centre in Central Ethiopia: the Impact of Resurgence on the 2030 Elimination Goals

Background: Despite Ethiopia's concerted efforts to eliminate malaria by 2030, the disease continues to pose a significant public health and socioeconomic challenge in the country. The year 2021 witnessed 2.78 million malaria cases and 8041 associated deaths, emphasizing the persistent threat. Monitoring the prevalence trend of malaria is crucial for devising effective control and elimination strategies. This study aims to assess the trend of malaria prevalence at the Metehara Health Centre in the East Shoa Zone, Ethiopia.

Methods: A retrospective study, spanning from February to September 2023, utilized malaria registration laboratory logbooks at Metehara Health Centre to evaluate the prevalence of malaria from 2017/18 to 2022/23. Malaria and related data were collected using a pre-designed data collection sheet. Descriptive statistics were employed for data summarization, presented through graphs and tables.

Results: Out of 59,250 examined blood films, 17.4% confirmed the presence of Plasmodium infections. Among the confirmed cases, 74.3%, 23.8%, and 1.84% were attributed to Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and mixed infections, respectively. The trend of malaria exhibited a steady decline from 2017/18 to 2021/22, reaching 9.8% prevalence. However, an abrupt increase to 26.5% was observed in 2022/23. Males accounted for a higher proportion (66%) of cases compared to females (34%). The age group 15-24 years experienced the highest malaria incidence at 42%. Notably, malaria cases peaked during autumn (September to November) at 43% and reached the lowest percentage during spring (March to May) at 13%.

Conclusion: Malaria persists as a significant health challenge in and around Metehara, central Ethiopia, predominantly driven by Plasmodium falciparum. The five-year declining trend was interrupted by a notable upsurge in 2022/23, indicating a resurgence of malaria in the study area. It is imperative to adopt a reverse strategy to sustain the progress achieved by the national malaria control plan.