Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model for the Risk of Distal Metastasis in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: a Real-world Study

Overview

Journal BMC Gastroenterol

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialty Gastroenterology

Date 2024 Jan 3

PMID 38166611

Authors

Caixia Fang

Chan Xu

Xiaodong Jia

Xiaoping Li

Chengliang Yin

Xiaojuan Xing

Wenle Li

Zhenyun Wang

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a highly malignant and easily metastatic bile duct tumor with poor prognosis. We aimed at studying the associated risk factors affecting distal metastasis of CCA and using nomogram to guide clinicians in predicting distal metastasis of CCA.

Methods: Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 345 patients with CCA were selected from the Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital and were divided into distal metastases (N = 21) and non-distal metastases (N = 324). LASSO regression models were used to screen for relevant parameters and to compare basic clinical information between the two groups of patients. Risk factors for distal metastasis were identified based on the results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The nomogram was established based on the results of multivariate logistic regression, and we drawn the corresponding correlation heat map. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots. The utility of the model in clinical applications was illustrated by applying decision curve analysis (DCA), and overall survival(OS) analysis was performed using the method of Kaplan-meier.

Results: This study identified 4 independent risk factors for distal metastasis of CCA, including CA199, cholesterol, hypertension and margin invasion, and developed the nomogram based on this. The result of validation showed that the model had significant accuracy for diagnosis with the area under ROC (AUC) of 0.882 (95% CI: 0.843-0.914). Calibration plots and DCA showed that the model had high clinical utility.

Conclusions: This study established and validated a model of nomogram for predicting distal metastasis in patients with CCA. Based on this, it could guide clinicians to make better decisions and provide more accurate prognosis and treatment for patients with CCA.

Citing Articles

Construction of a nomogram for predicting HNSCC distant metastasis and identification of EIF5A as a hub gene.

Chen X, Zhang Y, Chen S, Yang Y, Sun G, Pan P Sci Rep. 2024; 14(1):13367.

PMID: 38862693 PMC: 11166653. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-64197-z.

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