Relationship Between Ozone and Air Temperature in Future Conditions: A Case Study in Sichuan Basin, China

The Sichuan Basin (SCB) is located in southwestern China and has a unique topography where ozone (O) pollution is frequent during summer. Few studies have clarified the relationship between O and air temperature in SCB. Here, the SCB was divided into four major urban agglomerations. The weather research and forecasting model-community multiscale air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) was used to analyze the meteorology, spatial distribution characteristics of pollutants, and interactions among the urban agglomerations in the SCB. WRF-CMAQ was used to study the historical changes in the climate penalty factor (CPF) from 2015 to 2020 and the climate pathways under the SSP2-4.5 CPF in values in 2030 for the ambitious pollution NDC-goal scenario (NDC) and current-goals scenario (Current). The results show that the SCB is warmer in the summer months with prevailing northeasterly winds. Ozone accumulated in the western part of the SCB, and a high CPF of O concentration was most prominent in NW urban agglomeration, where the O concentration increased by 4.12-5.40 ppb for every 1 °C increase in air temperature. The observed CPF in the SCB in 2020 averaged 3.64 ppb/°C. The average CPF in the SCB in 2030 was 1.152 ppb/°C under the NDC scenario and 1.269 ppb/°C under the current scenario. This study is critical for understanding the relationship between O concentration and air temperature in China.