Trends in Liver Cancer Mortality in China from 1990 to 2019: a Systematic Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objective: We aimed to examine trends in overall mortality rates for liver cancer and those within subgroups according to sex, age, aetiological factors and modifiable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019.

Design: The design of this study involved analysing liver cancer mortality rates in China from 1990 to 2019 using joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in mortality rates. Annual percentage changes (APCs) and 95% CIs were used to quantify the magnitude of changes in mortality rates. The study also conducted subgroup analyses based on sex, age, aetiological factors and risk factors to better understand trends in liver cancer mortality rates.

Results: The age-standardised mortality from liver cancer in China first increased from 28.12 to 31.54 deaths per 100 000 population in 1990-1996 (APC=2.1%, 95% CI: 1.5% to 2.6%), then dropped at varying rates (1996-2000, APC=-3.7%, 95% CI: -5.2% to -2.1%; 2000-2004, APC=-17.4%, 95% CI: -18.7% to -16.1%; 2004-2007, APC=-5.4%, 95% CI: -8.3% to -2.3%; and 2007-2012, APC=-1.4%, 95% CI: -2.3% to -0.4%), and began to increase again after 2012 (APC=1.3%, 95% CI: 0.9% to 1.7%). Hepatitis B and C virus infections accounted for 63% and 18% of liver cancer-related deaths, respectively, in China from 1990 to 2019. Smoking, drug use, alcohol use and elevated body mass index were the four leading risk factors for liver cancer mortality in China during the study period. Notable variations in both liver cancer mortality rates and changes in mortality rates were observed across sexes and age groups.

Conclusions: The age-standardised liver cancer mortality rate in China significantly decreased from 1996 to 2019. The major differences in liver cancer mortality rates and inconsistent changes in mortality rates between 1990 and 2019 merit the attention of researchers and policymakers.