Intervention Effect of New Tuberculosis Control Model on Tuberculosis Incidence in Xinjiang

Overview

Journal Infect Drug Resist

Publisher Dove Medical Press

Date 2023 Dec 13

PMID 38089956

Authors

Yan Zhang

Xinqi Wang

Nianqiang Liu

Senlu Wang

Xiaomin Wang

Mingqin Cao

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Objective: To quantitatively evaluate the intervention effect of the "Xinjiang model" policy on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Xinjiang, and to compare the difference of policy effect between areas with different tuberculosis burdens.

Methods: We retrospectively collected data on the registered incidence of PTB patients in 14 prefectures of Xinjiang from January 2012 to December 2021 and used Joinpoint model to describe the time trend of registered incidence, single-group interrupted time series (ITS) model to analyze the dynamics of registered incidence before and after the policy intervention, and controlled interrupted time series (CITS) model to compare the differences in the effects of the policy in different tuberculosis burdened areas.

Results: The areas with high registered incidence of PTB in Xinjiang were mainly located in the four prefectures of southern Xinjiang. The time trend of registered incidence of PTB in Xinjiang from 2012 to 2021 showed a general downward trend (AAPC=-3.4%), an upward trend from 2012 to 2018 (APC=12.1%), and a rapid downward trend from 2018 to 2021 (APC=-28.3%). Single-group ITS results showed that registered incidence in Xinjiang increased by 13.806/100,000 one month after policy was implemented (<0.001); the long-term effect of policy was a downward trend in registered incidence (β<0, <0.001), decreasing by 0.690/100,000 per month. In high-, medium-, and low-burden areas of PTB, the long-term effect of policy was a monthly decrease in registered incidence of 1.460/100,000, 0.227/100,000, and 0.064/100,000, respectively. The long-term effects of policy interventions in high- and medium-burden areas showed a faster decline in registered incidence than in low-burden areas (β was -1.548 and -0.194, respectively, <0.001).

Conclusion: A dynamic causal relationship exists between "Xinjiang model" policy and registered incidence, and its continued implementation is effective in controlling the spread of tuberculosis.

Citing Articles

Effectiveness and Determinants of Implementing the "Xinjiang Model" for Tuberculosis Prevention and Control: A Quantitative Study.

Zhang Y, Wang S, Wang X, Liu N, Wang L, Wang X Infect Drug Resist. 2024; 17:2609-2620.

PMID: 38947373 PMC: 11213531. DOI: 10.2147/IDR.S459228.

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