Association Between Knee Osteoarthritis and Mortality: a Serial Propensity Score-matched Cohort Study

Background/aims: The association between symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) and higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is established; however, findings from studies that utilized regression analysis were limited, attributed to the strong association between OA and metabolic risk factors. This study aimed to evaluate the association between knee OA and mortality through propensity score matching.

Methods: This was a cohort study including Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2010-2013) participants aged ≥ 50 years. By linking the survey data to cause of death data (through 2019) from Statistics Korea, mortality and cause-specific mortality data were obtained. Radiographic knee OA (ROA) was defined as bilateral Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2. Propensity score matching (1:1) was conducted between asymptomatic ROA, knee pain, and symptomatic ROA groups and normal groups, balancing the confounding factors. Time to death was analyzed using Cox proportional hazard modeling.

Results: A higher CVD mortality was observed in the symptomatic ROA group, but not in others; the risk estimates were asymptomatic ROA (hazard ratio [HR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-1.65), knee pain (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.27-1.38), and symptomatic ROA (HR 1.39; 95% CI 0.89-2.17). No association was found between the all-cause/cancer mortality and other groups.

Conclusion: When propensity score matching controls metabolic risk factor imbalances, the association between symptomatic knee OA and higher CVD mortality was weaker compared to results of prior studies that used regression adjustment. The results may be more precise estimates of the total risk of knee OA for mortality in Koreans.