Predicting High-risk Periods for Weight Regain Following Initial Weight Loss

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a predictive algorithm of "high-risk" periods for weight regain after weight loss.

Methods: Longitudinal mixed-effects models and random forest regression were used to select predictors and develop an algorithm to predict weight regain on a week-to-week basis, using weekly questionnaire and self-monitoring data (including daily e-scale data) collected over 40 weeks from 46 adults who lost ≥5% of baseline weight during an initial 12-week intervention (Study 1). The algorithm was evaluated in 22 adults who completed the same Study 1 intervention but lost <5% of baseline weight and in 30 adults recruited for a separate 30-week study (Study 2).

Results: The final algorithm retained the frequency of self-monitoring caloric intake and weight plus self-report ratings of hunger and the importance of weight-management goals compared with competing life demands. In the initial training data set, the algorithm predicted weight regain the following week with a sensitivity of 75.6% and a specificity of 45.8%; performance was similar (sensitivity: 81%-82%, specificity: 30%-33%) in testing data sets.

Conclusions: Weight regain can be predicted on a proximal, week-to-week level. Future work should investigate the clinical utility of adaptive interventions for weight-loss maintenance and develop more sophisticated predictive models of weight regain.