Study of Prevalence and Risk Factors of Chemotherapy-induced Mucositis in Gastrointestinal Cancer Using Machine Learning Models

Objective: Chemotherapy-induced mucositis (CIM) significantly impacts clinical outcomes and diminishes the quality of life in patients with gastrointestinal cancer. This study aims to prospectively determine the incidence, severity, and underlying risk factors associated with CIM in this patient population.

Methods: To achieve this objective, we introduce a novel Machine Learning-based Toxicity Prediction Model (ML-TPM) designed to analyze the risk factors contributing to CIM development in gastrointestinal cancer patients. Within the winter season spanning from December 15th, 2018 to January 14th, 2019, we conducted in-person interviews with patients undergoing chemotherapy for gastrointestinal cancer. These interviews encompassed comprehensive questionnaires pertaining to patient demographics, CIM incidence, severity, and any supplementary prophylactic measures employed.

Results: The study encompassed a cohort of 447 participating patients who provided complete questionnaire responses (100%). Of these, 328 patients (73.4%) reported experiencing CIM during the course of their treatment. Notably, CIM-induced complications led to treatment discontinuation in 14 patients (3%). The most frequently encountered CIM symptoms were diarrhea (41.6%), followed by nausea (37.8%), vomiting (25.1%), abdominal pain (21%), gastritis (10.5%), and oral pain (10.3%). Supplementary prophylaxis was administered to approximately 62% of the patients. The analysis revealed significant correlations between the overall incidence of CIM and gender (=0.015), number of chemotherapy cycles exceeding one (=0.039), utilization of platinum-based regimens (p=0.039), and administration of irinotecan (=0.003). Specifically, the incidence of diarrhea exhibited positive correlations with prior surgical history (=0.037), irinotecan treatment (=0.021), and probiotics usage (=0.035). Conversely, diarrhea incidence demonstrated an adverse correlation with platinum-based treatment (=0.026).

Conclusion: In conclusion, this study demonstrates the successful implementation of the ML-TPM model for automating toxicity prediction with accuracy comparable to conventional physical analyses. Our findings provide valuable insights into the identification of CIM risk factors among gastrointestinal cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. Furthermore, the results underscore the potential of machine learning in enhancing our understanding of chemotherapy-induced mucositis and advancing personalized patient care strategies.