Disentangling Local and Global Climate Drivers in the Population Dynamics of Mosquito-borne Infections

Overview

Journal Sci Adv

Specialties Biology
Science

Date 2023 Sep 27

PMID 37756402

Authors

Bernard Cazelles

Kevin Cazelles

Huaiyu Tian

Mario Chavez

Mercedes Pascual

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Identifying climate drivers is essential to understand and predict epidemics of mosquito-borne infections whose population dynamics typically exhibit seasonality and multiannual cycles. Which climate covariates to consider varies across studies, from local factors such as temperature to remote drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. With partial wavelet coherence, we present a systematic investigation of nonstationary associations between mosquito-borne disease incidence and a given climate factor while controlling for another. Analysis of almost 200 time series of dengue and malaria around the globe at different geographical scales shows a systematic effect of global climate drivers on interannual variability and of local ones on seasonality. This clear separation of time scales of action enhances detection of climate drivers and indicates those best suited for building early-warning systems.

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