» Articles » PMID: 37753320

Prediction of Survival in Patients with Advanced Cancer: A Narrative Review and Future Research Priorities

Overview
Date 2023 Sep 27
PMID 37753320
Authors
Affiliations
Soon will be listed here.
Abstract

This paper aimed to summarize the current situation of prognostication for patients with an expected survival of weeks or months, and to clarify future research priorities. Prognostic information is essential for patients, their families, and medical professionals to make end-of-life decisions. The clinician's prediction of survival is often used, but this may be inaccurate and optimistic. Many prognostic tools, such as the Palliative Performance Scale, Palliative Prognostic Index, Palliative Prognostic Score, and Prognosis in Palliative Care Study, have been developed and validated to reduce the inaccuracy of the clinician's prediction of survival. To date, there is no consensus on the most appropriate method of comparing tools that use different formats to predict survival. Therefore, the feasibility of using prognostic scales in clinical practice and the information wanted by the end users can determine the appropriate prognostic tool to use. We propose four major themes for further prognostication research: (1) functional prognosis, (2) outcomes of prognostic communication, (3) artificial intelligence, and (4) education for clinicians.

References
1.
Epstein A, Prigerson H, OReilly E, Maciejewski P . Discussions of Life Expectancy and Changes in Illness Understanding in Patients With Advanced Cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2016; 34(20):2398-403. PMC: 4981977. DOI: 10.1200/JCO.2015.63.6696. View

2.
Hui D, Ross J, Park M, Dev R, Vidal M, Liu D . Predicting survival in patients with advanced cancer in the last weeks of life: How accurate are prognostic models compared to clinicians' estimates?. Palliat Med. 2019; 34(1):126-133. DOI: 10.1177/0269216319873261. View

3.
Stone P, White N, Oostendorp L, Llewellyn H, Vickerstaff V . Comparing the performance of the palliative prognostic (PaP) score with clinical predictions of survival: A systematic review. Eur J Cancer. 2021; 158:27-35. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2021.08.049. View

4.
Mori M, Fujimori M, Ishiki H, Nishi T, Hamano J, Otani H . Adding a Wider Range and "Hope for the Best, and Prepare for the Worst" Statement: Preferences of Patients with Cancer for Prognostic Communication. Oncologist. 2019; 24(9):e943-e952. PMC: 6738294. DOI: 10.1634/theoncologist.2018-0643. View

5.
Hamano J, Morita T, Inoue S, Ikenaga M, Matsumoto Y, Sekine R . Surprise Questions for Survival Prediction in Patients With Advanced Cancer: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study. Oncologist. 2015; 20(7):839-44. PMC: 4492240. DOI: 10.1634/theoncologist.2015-0015. View