Simulation of the Mortality After Different Ex Ante (secondary) and Ex Post (tertiary) Triage Methods in People with Disabilities and Pre-existing Diseases

The significant increase in patients during the COVID-19 pandemic presented the healthcare system with a variety of challenges. The intensive care unit is one of the areas particularly affected in this context. Only through extensive infection control measures as well as an enormous logistical effort was it possible to treat all patients requiring intensive care in Germany even during peak phases of the pandemic, and to prevent triage even in regions with high patient pressure and simultaneously low capacities. Regarding pandemic preparedness, the German Parliament passed a law on triage that explicitly prohibits ex post (tertiary) triage. In ex post triage, patients who are already being treated are included in the triage decision and treatment capacities are allocated according to the individual likelihood of success. Legal, ethical, and social considerations for triage in pandemics can be found in the literature, but there is no quantitative assessment with respect to different patient groups in the intensive care unit. This study addressed this gap and applied a simulation-based evaluation of ex ante (primary) and ex post triage policies in consideration of survival probabilities, impairments, and pre-existing conditions. The results show that application of ex post triage based on survival probabilities leads to a reduction in mortality in the intensive care unit for all patient groups. In the scenario close to a real-world situation, considering different impaired and prediseased patient groups, a reduction in mortality of approximately 15% was already achieved by applying ex post triage on the first day. This mortality-reducing effect of ex post triage is further enhanced as the number of patients requiring intensive care increases.