Machine Learning Model Insights into Base-Catalyzed Hydrothermal Lignin Depolymerization

Lignin, an abundant component of plant matter, can be depolymerized into renewable aromatic chemicals and biofuels but remains underutilized. Homogeneously catalyzed depolymerization in water has gained attention due to its economic feasibility and performance but suffers from inconsistently reported yields of bio-oil and solid residues. In this study, machine learning methods were used to develop predictive models for bio-oil and solid residue yields by using a few reaction variables and were subsequently validated by doing experimental work and comparing the predictions to the results. The models achieved a coefficient of determination () score of 0.83 and 0.76, respectively, for bio-oil yield and solid residue. Variable importance for each model was calculated by two different methodologies and was tied to existing studies to explain the model predictive behavior. Based on the outcome of the study, the creation of concrete guidelines for reporting in lignin depolymerization studies was recommended. Shapley additive explanation value analysis reveals that temperature and reaction time are generally the strongest predictors of experimental outcomes compared to the rest.