Epidemiologic Characteristics and Risk Factors Associated with Overall Survival for Patients with Mucinous Colorectal Cancer: A Population-based Study

Background: Mucinous adenocarcinoma (MC) has attracted much attention as a distinct histologic subtype of colorectal cancer in recent years. However, data about its epidemiologic and prognostic characteristics are limited. Therefore, patient data extracted from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were collected to analyze the epidemiologic and clinicopathological characteristics of MC.

Aim: To determine the epidemiologic and clinicopathological characteristics of MC.

Methods: The incidence trend of MC was calculated through the Joinpoint Regression Program. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS). A nomogram was established to predict the survival probability of individual patients with MC.

Results: We found that rates of MC decreased from 4.50/100000 in 2000 to 1.54/100000 in 2018. Rates of MCs in patients aged ≤ 50 years decreased 2.27%/year during 2000-2018. The incidence of appendiceal MCs increased from 0.14/100000 in 2000 to 0.24/100000 in 2018, while the incidence in other anatomic subsites continued to decrease. On multivariable Cox analyses, age, race, tumor site, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were associated with OS. A nomogram was developed based on these factors, and the area under the curve for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS in the training cohort was 0.778, 0.778, and 0.768, respectively.

Conclusion: Our results demonstrated that MC incidence decreased in almost all anatomic subgroups except for the appendix. A nomogram predicting the survival probability of patients with MCs showed good performance.