Evaluation of the Effect of the ENSO Cycle on the Distribution Potential of the Genus of Horticultural Importance in the Neotropics and Panama

Overview

Journal Insects

Specialty Biology

Date 2023 Aug 25

PMID 37623424

Authors

Arturo Batista Degracia

Julian Avila Jimenez

Anovel Barba Alvarado

Randy Atencio Valdespino

Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Climate variability has made us change our perspective on the study of insect pests and pest insects, focusing on preserving or maintaining efficient production systems in the world economy. The four species of the genus were selected for this study due to their colonization and expansion characteristics. Models of the potential distribution of these species are scarce in most neotropical countries, and there is a current and pressing demand to carry out this type of analysis in the face of the common scenarios of climate variability. We analyzed 370 presence records with statistical metrics and 16 bioclimatic variables. The MaxEnt method was used to evaluate the effect of the ENSO cycle on the potential distribution of the species (Macquart), (Wiedemann), (Macquart), and (Schiner) as imported horticultural pests in the neotropics and Panama. A total of 3472 candidate models were obtained for each species, and the environmental variables with the greatest contribution to the final models were LST range and LST min for , PRECIP range and PRECIP min for , LST range and LST min for , and LST min and LST max for . The percentage expansion of the range of in all environmental scenarios was 26.46 and the contraction of the range was 30.80; the percentage expansion of the range of in all environmental scenarios was 3.15 and the contraction of the range was 28.49; the percentage expansion of the range of in all environmental scenarios was 5.71 and the contraction of the range was 3.40; and the percentage expansion of the range of in all environmental scenarios was 41.08 and the contraction of the range was 7.30, and we selected the best model, resulting in a wide distribution (suitable areas) of these species in the neotropics that was influenced by the variability of climatic events (El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña). Information is provided on the phytosanitary surveillance systems of the countries in areas where these species could be established, which is useful for defining policies and making decisions on integrated management plans according to sustainable agriculture.

Citing Articles

Incidence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Cycle on the Existing Fundamental Niche and Establishment Risk of Some Species (Diptera-Tephritidae) of Horticultural Importance in the Neotropics and Panama.

Degracia A, Avila Jimenez J, Alvarado A, Valdespino R, Altamiranda-Saavedra M Insects. 2024; 15(5).

PMID: 38786887 PMC: 11122425. DOI: 10.3390/insects15050331.

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