A Unique Gene Signature Predicting Recurrence Free Survival in Stage IA Lung Adenocarcinoma

Objective: Resected stage IA lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) has a reported 5-year recurrence free survival (RFS) of 63-81%. A unique gene signature stratifying patients with early stage LUAD as high or low-risk of recurrence would be valuable.

Methods: GEO datasets combining European and North American LUAD patients (n=684) were filtered for stage IA (n=105) to develop a robust signature for recurrence (RFSscore). Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to assess associations of gene expression with RFS and OS. Leveraging a bootstrap approach of these identified upregulated genes allowed construction of a model which was evaluated by Area Under the Received Operating Characteristics. The optimal signature has RFSscore calculated via a linear combination of expression of selected genes weighted by the corresponding Cox regression derived coefficients. Log-rank analysis calculated RFS and OS. Results were validated using the LUAD TCGA transcriptomic NGS based dataset.

Results: Rigorous bioinformatic analysis identified a signature of 4 genes: KNSTRN, PAFAH1B3, MIF, CHEK1. Kaplan-Meier analysis of stage IA LUAD with this signature resulted in 5-year RFS for low-risk of 90% compared to 53% for high-risk (HR 6.55, 95%CI 2.65-16.18, p-value <0.001), confirming the robustness of the gene signature with its clinical significance. Validation of the signature using TCGA dataset resulted in an AUC of 0.797 and 5-year RFS for low and high-risk stage IA patients being 91% and 67%, respectively (HR 3.44, 95%CI 1.16-10.23, p-value=0.044).

Conclusions: This 4 gene signature stratifies European and North American patients with pathologically confirmed stage IA LUAD into low and high-risk groups for OS and more importantly RFS.