Existence of HLA-Mismatched Unrelated Donors Closes the Gap in Donor Availability Regardless of Recipient Ancestry

In patients without a matched sibling donor (MSD) or well-matched unrelated donor (MUD), hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) can still be successful when using an HLA-mismatched unrelated donor (MMUD) in combination with post-transplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy), abatacept, or other novel approaches. This may allow clinicians to choose a suitable donor from a wide range of donor options while optimizing other donor selection characteristics, including donor age. We hypothesized that allowing for a 5/8 HLA match level considering high-resolution matching at HLA-A, -B, -C and -DRB1, there is a potential to close the donor availability gap for all patients regardless of their race/ethnicity. In this work, we estimate the likelihood of matching for all racial/ethnic groups at different HLA match thresholds. Our study aimed to assess the potential for identifying an available MUD or MMUD in the National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP)/Be The Match (BTM) donor registry for 21 detailed and 5 broad racial/ethnic groups, using high-resolution HLA matching for HLA-A, -B, -C, and -DRB1 at various levels (8/8, 7/8, 6/8, and 5/8). We used donor registry population data from the NMDP/BTM in 2020 and redistributed the donor registry data according to existing population ratios, accounting for demonstrated donor availability. Finally, we used a genetic model at the population level to estimate the match likelihood for detailed and broad racial/ethnic groups. Likelihood of 8/8 HLA match ranging from 16% to 74% were obtained for various detailed racial/ethnic groups with available donors age ≤35 years. When considering more mismatches in the HLA loci, registry coverage became >99% with a 5/8 HLA match level for donors of all ages or those age ≤35 years, with HLA-DPB1 T cell epitope permissive matching, or when searching for donors outside of their racial/ethnic group. Our registry models demonstrate the potential for using MMUDs at various HLA match levels to study whether this will expand access to HCT across racial/ethnic groups. Expanded donor options may erase the donor availability gap for all patients while allowing for selection of MMUDs with favorable characteristics, such as younger age.