Time-varying Overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission During the Periods when Different Variants of Concern Were Circulating in Japan

Overview

Journal Sci Rep

Specialty Science

Date 2023 Aug 14

PMID 37580339

Authors

Yura K Ko

Yuki Furuse

Kanako Otani

Masato Yamauchi

Kota Ninomiya

Mayuko Saito

Takeaki Imamura

Alex R Cook

Tadayuki Ahiko

Shunji Fujii

Yoshiharu Mori

Emiko Suzuki

Keiko Yamada

Yoshikazu Ashino

Hidetoshi Yamashita

Yuichi Kato

Katsumi Mizuta

Motoi Suzuki

Hitoshi Oshitani

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Japan has implemented a cluster-based approach for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from the pandemic's beginning based on the transmission heterogeneity (overdispersion) of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, studies analyzing overdispersion of transmission among new variants of concerns (VOCs), especially for Omicron, were limited. Thus, we aimed to clarify how the transmission heterogeneity has changed with the emergence of VOCs (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) using detailed contact tracing data in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan. We estimated the time-varying dispersion parameter ([Formula: see text]) by fitting a negative binomial distribution for each transmission generation. Our results showed that even after the emergence of VOCs, there was transmission heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2, with changes in [Formula: see text] during each wave. Continuous monitoring of transmission dynamics is vital for implementing appropriate measures. However, a feasible and sustainable epidemiological analysis system should be established to make this possible.

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