A Novel Prognostic Scoring System to Predict Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) is associated with a poor prognosis for HCC patients. Herein we aimed to establish a scoring system to predict the risk of PVTT formation in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated HCC.

Methods: A total of 848 patients from the Henan Province Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Hospital with HCC were included in the study. Among them, 403 with and 445 without PVTT were retrospectively analyzed to identify the risk factors for PVTT formation, using a novel scoring system to predict the occurrence of PVTT in HBV-associated HCC patients. The scoring system was validated using clinical data from the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of TCM. Significant findings: The Cox proportional-hazard regression model revealed that gender, tumor size, the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and alpha-fetoprotein and C-reactive protein concentrations were dependent clinical prognostic factors for PVTT, which were included in the final scoring model for PVTT prediction (AUC, 0.858; 95% CI: 0.832 to 0.881). The scoring model ranked HCC patients into 3 risk grades. A sensitivity analysis for validation of the scoring system was performed on 489 patients with HBV-related HCC. The proportion of patients in each grade was not significantly different.

Conclusions: The study established a risk warning system for PVTT prediction in HCC patients. More substantial clinical data will be necessary to confirm these findings.