An Ecological Assessment of the Potential Pandemic Threat of Dengue Virus in Zhejiang Province of China

Overview

Journal BMC Infect Dis

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2023 Jul 17

PMID 37461015

Authors

Yaxing Zhang

Lei Wang

Guozhen Wang

Jiabao Xu

Tianxing Zhang

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background And Aim: Dengue fever, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a significant public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions. With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the reopening of the borders, dengue fever remains a threat to mainland China, Zhejiang province of China is facing a huge risk of importing the dengue virus. This study aims to analyze and predict the current and future potential risk regions for Aedes vectors distribution and dengue prevalence in Zhejiang province of China.

Method: We collected occurrence records of DENV and DENV vectors globally from 2010 to 2022, along with historical and future climate data and human population density data. In order to predict the probability of DENV distribution in Zhejiang province of China under future conditions, the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was first performed with historical climate data based on MaxEnt. Then, predicted results along with a set of bioclimatic variables, elevation and human population density were included in MaxEnt model to analyze the risk region of DENV in Zhejiang province. Finally, the established model was utilized to predict the spatial pattern of DENV risk in the current and future scenarios in Zhejiang province of China.

Results: Our findings indicated that approximately 89.2% (90,805.6 KM) of Zhejiang province of China is under risk, within about 8.0% (8,144 KM) classified as high risk area for DENV prevalence. Ae. albopictus were identified as the primary factor influencing the distribution of DENV. Future predictions suggest that sustainable and "green" development pathways may increase the risk of DENV prevalence in Zhejiang province of China. Conversely, Fossil-fueled development pathways may reduce the risk due to the unsuitable environment for vectors.

Conclusions: The implications of this research highlight the need for effective vector control measures, community engagement, health education, and environmental initiatives to mitigate the potential spread of dengue fever in high-risk regions of Zhejiang province of China.

Citing Articles

Projecting temperature-related dengue burden in the Philippines under various socioeconomic pathway scenarios.

Seposo X, Valenzuela S, Apostol G, Wangkay K, Lao P, Enriquez A Front Public Health. 2025; 12:1420457.

PMID: 39764196 PMC: 11701004. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1420457.

Advancing knowledge of One Health in China: lessons for One Health from China's dengue control and prevention programs.

Feng X, Jiang N, Zheng J, Zhu Z, Chen J, Duan L Sci One Health. 2024; 3:100087.

PMID: 39641122 PMC: 11617290. DOI: 10.1016/j.soh.2024.100087.

Dynamics and Efficacy: A Comprehensive Evaluation of the Advanced Dengue Fever Surveillance and Early Warning System in Ningbo City, 2023.

Zhang Y, Abudunaibi B, Zhao Y, Zhang D, Chu Y, Lei S Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2024; 17:1947-1955.

PMID: 39140008 PMC: 11321351. DOI: 10.2147/RMHP.S470237.

References

Kularatne S . Dengue fever. BMJ. 2015; 351:h4661. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h4661. View

Dickens B, Sun H, Jit M, Cook A, Carrasco L . Determining environmental and anthropogenic factors which explain the global distribution of and . BMJ Glob Health. 2018; 3(4):e000801. PMC: 6135425. DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2018-000801. View

Ibanez-Justicia A, Alcaraz-Hernandez J, van Lammeren R, Koenraadt C, Bergsma A, Delucchi L . Habitat suitability modelling to assess the introductions of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands. Parasit Vectors. 2020; 13(1):217. PMC: 7184689. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04077-3. View

Nyakarahuka L, Ayebare S, Mosomtai G, Kankya C, Lutwama J, Mwiine F . Ecological Niche Modeling for Filoviruses: A Risk Map for Ebola and Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Uganda. PLoS Curr. 2017; 9. PMC: 5614672. DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.07992a87522e1f229c7cb023270a2af1. View

Romeo-Aznar V, Freitas L, Cruz O, King A, Pascual M . Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics. Nat Commun. 2022; 13(1):996. PMC: 8864019. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28231-w. View

Liu X, Liu Q . Surveillance and Risk Warnings for Dengue - China, 2016-2019. China CDC Wkly. 2021; 2(24):431-437. PMC: 8428436. DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2020.111. View

Hu T, Zhang H, Feng Y, Fan J, Tang T, Liu Y . Epidemiological and molecular characteristics of emergent dengue virus in Yunnan Province near the China-Myanmar-Laos border, 2013-2015. BMC Infect Dis. 2017; 17(1):331. PMC: 5422898. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2401-1. View

Simmons C, Farrar J, Nguyen V, Wills B . Dengue. N Engl J Med. 2012; 366(15):1423-32. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMra1110265. View

Elson W, Reiner R, Siles C, Bazan I, Vilcarromero S, Riley-Powell A . Heterogeneity of Dengue Illness in Community-Based Prospective Study, Iquitos, Peru. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020; 26(9):2077-2086. PMC: 7454099. DOI: 10.3201/eid2609.191472. View

10.

Zhu G, Peterson A . Potential geographic distribution of the novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus. PLoS One. 2014; 9(4):e93390. PMC: 3972139. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093390. View

11.

Muller D, Depelsenaire A, Young P . Clinical and Laboratory Diagnosis of Dengue Virus Infection. J Infect Dis. 2017; 215(suppl_2):S89-S95. DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw649. View

12.

Zhang H, Song J, Zhao H, Li M, Han W . Predicting the Distribution of the Invasive Species : Combining MaxEnt and Geodetector Models. Insects. 2021; 12(2). PMC: 7911618. DOI: 10.3390/insects12020092. View

13.

Wilder-Smith A, Ooi E, Horstick O, Wills B . Dengue. Lancet. 2019; 393(10169):350-363. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32560-1. View

14.

Lubinda J, Trevino C J, Walsh M, Moore A, Hanafi-Bojd A, Akgun S . Environmental suitability for and and the spatial distribution of major arboviral infections in Mexico. Parasite Epidemiol Control. 2019; 6:e00116. PMC: 6742751. DOI: 10.1016/j.parepi.2019.e00116. View

15.

Du J, Zhang L, Hu X, Peng R, Wang G, Huang Y . Phylogenetic Analysis of the Dengue Virus Strains Causing the 2019 Dengue Fever Outbreak in Hainan, China. Virol Sin. 2021; 36(4):636-643. PMC: 7783495. DOI: 10.1007/s12250-020-00335-x. View

16.

Yu H, Kong Q, Wang J, Qiu X, Wen Y, Yu X . Multiple Lineages of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Cosmopolitan Genotype Caused a Local Dengue Outbreak in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, in 2017. Sci Rep. 2019; 9(1):7345. PMC: 6517437. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-43560-5. View

17.

Gao Z, Zhang Y, Yang Y, Xu M, Liao P, He W . Dengue virus infections among blood donors in Guangxi of China, 2013-2014. Transfus Med. 2017; 28(3):236-242. DOI: 10.1111/tme.12448. View

18.

Hopperstad K, Sallam M, Reiskind M . Estimations of Fine-Scale Species Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Eastern Florida. J Med Entomol. 2020; 58(2):699-707. DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjaa216. View

19.

Li C, Wang X, Wu X, Liu J, Ji D, Du J . Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors. Sci Total Environ. 2017; 605-606:867-873. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.181. View

20.

Kraemer M, Sinka M, Duda K, Mylne A, Shearer F, Brady O . The global compendium of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence. Sci Data. 2015; 2:150035. PMC: 4493829. DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2015.35. View