Construction and Validation of TACE Therapeutic Efficacy by ALR Score and Nomogram: A Large, Multicenter Study

Background: TACE and TACE with or without targeted immunotherapy are crucial comprehensive therapies for middle and advanced HCC. However, a reasonable and concise score is needed to evaluate TACE and TACE combined with systemic therapy in HCC treatment.

Methods: The HCC patients were grouped into two groups: training group (n = 778) (treated with TACE) and verification group (n = 333). The predictive value of baseline variables on overall survival was analyzed using COX model, and easy-to-use ALR (AST and Lym-R) scores. The best cut-off value of AST and Lym-R were determined using X-Tile software based on total survival time (OS) and further verified via a restricted three-spline method. Meanwhile, the score was further verified using two independent valid sets: TACE combined with targeted therapy and TACE with targeted combined immunotherapy.

Results: In multivariate analysis, baseline serum AST>57.1 (p < 0.001) and Lym-R≤21.7 (p < 0.001) were identified as independent prognostic factors. The OS of patients in the TACE pooled cohort with 0, 1, and 2 scores were 28.1 (95% CI 24-33.8) months, 15 (95% CI 12.4-18.6) months, and 7.4 (95% CI 5.7-9.1) months, respectively. The time-varying ROC curve based on ALR showed that the AUC values for predicting 1, -2-and 3-year OS were 0.698, 0.718, and 0.636, respectively. These results are confirmed in two independent valid sets of TACE combined with targeted therapy and TACE with targeted combined immunotherapy. And we established a nomogram after COX regression to predict the 1 -, 2- and 3-year survival time.

Conclusion: Our study confirmed that ALR score can predict the prognosis of HCC treated with TACE or TACE combined with systemic therapy.