Predictors of Beverage-specific, Alcohol Consumption Trajectories: A Swedish Population-based Cohort Study

The aim of the study was to examine whether changes in alcohol consumption over time differ according to beverage types, and to what extent socioeconomic, lifestyle and health-related factors predict beverage-specific trajectories in Sweden. We included participants from the Stockholm Public Health Cohort who were surveyed repeatedly in 2002, 2010 and 2014. Alcohol consumption trajectories were constructed for 13,152 individuals with valid information on amount and frequency of drinking. Preferred beverage types (i.e., beer, wine or spirits) were defined based on the most consumed beverages. Multinomial logistic regression was used to quantify individual predictors of different trajectories, overall and by beverage type. Overall 56.9% of respondents were women, the mean age was 49.2 years, SD (13.1). Wine was cited as the preferred beverage for 72.4% of participants, and stable moderate drinking was the most common trajectory regardless of beverage type (68.2%, 54.9% and 54.2% in individuals with wine, beer and spirits as preferred beverages, respectively). Associations between drinking trajectories and baseline lifestyle factors did not differ by beverage type. Lower socioeconomic position (SEP) was associated with unstable moderate wine drinking (for unskilled manual SEP: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23, 1.93), unstable heavy beer drinking (for skilled manual SEP: aOR 1.99, 95% CI 1.14, 3.52; and unskilled manual SEP: aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.05, 2.82), and former beer drinking trajectory (for skilled manual SEP: aOR 1.81; 95% CI 1.21, 2.72; and unskilled manual SEP: aOR 1.66; 95% CI 1.17, 2.37). Lower SEP was associated with unstable heavy drinking of beer, former beer drinking, and unstable moderate wine drinking trajectories indicating that targeted alcohol prevention programmes need to focus on these groups.