Prevalence and Predictors of Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes and Pre-diabetes Among Adult Egyptians: a Community-based Survey

Background: The global prevalence of abnormal glycemic level comprising diabetes mellitus (DM) and pre-diabetes (PDM) is rapidly increasing with special concern for the entity silent or undiagnosed diabetes; those unaware of their condition. Identification of people at risk became much easier with the use of risk charts than the traditional methods. The current study aimed to conduct a community-based screening for T2DM to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed DM and to assess the AUSDRISK Arabic version as a predictive tool in an Egyptian context.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 719 Adults aging 18 years or more and not known to be diabetics through a population-based household survey. Each participant was interviewed to fill demographic and medical data as well as the AUSDRISK Arabic version risk score and undergo testing for fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT).

Results: The prevalence of DM and PDM were 5% and 21.7% respectively. The multivariate analysis revealed that age, being physically inactive, history of previous abnormal glycemic level and waist circumference were the predictors for having abnormal glycemic level among the studied participants. At cut off points ≥ 13 and ≥ 9, the AUSDRISK respectively discriminated DM [sensitivity (86.11%), specificity (73.35%), and area under the curve (AUC): 0.887, 95% CI: 0.824-0.950] and abnormal glycemic level [sensitivity (80.73%), specificity (58.06%), and AUC: 0.767, 95% CI: 0.727-0.807], p < 0.001.

Conclusions: Overt DM just occupies the top of an iceberg, its unseen big population have undiagnosed DM, PDM or been at risk of T2DM because of sustained exposure to the influential risk factors. The AUSDRISK Arabic version was proved to be sensitive and specific tool to be used among Egyptians as a screening tool for the detection of DM or abnormal glycemic level. A prominent association has been demonstrated between AUSDRISK Arabic version score and the diabetic status.